The autonomous car buzz continues to grow. I think the Jetsonian optimism of the mainstream press is over the top. Many predictions are in the range of two to five years. It will take longer. (hint: the policy will be harder than the technology, and the technology is not complete.) One writer predicted that autonomy will come sooner than electrification. That one could work out in the sense that autonomous VMT will surpass electric VMT in, say, 15 years. I certainly would not bet against that... The switch to artificial intelligence will be easier than the switch to batteries. (Why? because once self-driving tech is solved, distribution will be free and the infrastructure is ready. Not so with EVs.)
Anyway, both developments will erode the fuel tax further, so now what? The autonomous car had better learn more about potholes.
